Download Report IHS CEH Report : Polyethylene Resins, High-Density (HDPE) (Chemical Economics Handbook 2019)
PDF by S&P Global Commodity Insights; IHS Markit
Information
Format: PDF Language: English Pages: 125 Publisher: S&P Global Commodity Insights; IHS Markit Publitshion date: 2019 ISBN: 102818
$49
Delivery time: Maximum 24 hours
Description
In terms of volume, HDPE is the third-largest commodity plastic material in the world, after polyvinyl chloride and polypropylene.
The HDPE industry is in a growth mode, with supply and demand continuing to increase strongly in the next five years. Demand will continue to be dominated by Asia, primarily China. Northeast Asia alone is forecast to consume over a third of the total global consumption in 2023. Historically, traditional established economies, such as in North America, Western Europe, and Japan, produced HDPE. The recent growth of the polyethylene industry has resulted in a shift to production centers in the Middle East, namely Iran, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia.
The global polyethylene (PE) industry has experienced a wave of capacity additions in China (mainly coal based), the Middle East, and North America . The shift toward lighter and cost-advantaged feedstock in North America incentivizes production in the region. The competition in the international market has increased, thus adding pressure to the high-cost producers, especially in Western Europe. With the dip in oil prices in late 2014, the cost advantages enjoyed by natural gas–based producers declined but were not totally eliminated. Thus, North American capacity and production increases in the coming years will result in increased exports from the region. China is expected to benefit from local production, although its rapid demand growth will continue to depend on imported HDPE resins.
Global capacity for HDPE is expected to exceed 68 million metric tons by 2023, up from the current capacity of 51 million metric tons. Polyethylene includes low-density (LDPE), high-density (HDPE), and linear low-density (LLDPE) grades, with HDPE accounting for 45% of total polyethylene demand in 2018.
Global HDPE demand is forecast to be near 57 million metric tons in 2023, with predicted average annual global growth of 4.3% during 2018–23. Current demand for HDPE is around 46.2 million metric tons in 2018, mainly driven by China.
LyondellBasell, SABIC, and ExxonMobil are the top three producers globally, comprising a collective share of 16% of the global capacity in 2018. LyondellBasell is the largest producer globally, accounting for 6.2% of the total capacity in 2018.
While the low-priced crude environment during 2015–17 had given pause to some of the more speculative investment projects in the forecast period, the majority of projects put in place prior to the drop in crude prices beginning in late in 2014 are still progressing.
By 2023, the United States is expected to add close to 3.3 million metric tons of capacity, and is expected to have one of the highest average annual growth rates (6.4%) between 2018 and 2023. Many of the capacity investments announced in the recent past because of the shale boom will come to fruition during this period. Northeast Asia will continue to be the largest producer during this period and by 2023 will house 19.5 million metric tons of HDPE capacity.
China will continue to drive world demand for polyethylene, and is expected to have a total demand of 18.8 million metric tons of HDPE resins by 2023. Film and sheet applications continue be the largest end-use segment in China and globally, accounting for 28% of demand in 2023.
North American consumption will grow at an average annual rate of 2.7% in 2018–23, and reach nearly 9.5 million metric tons by 2023. Western European demand will surpass 5.5 million metric tons, but growth will be modest at 1.4% per year in the next five years.
Film and sheet, blow molding, and injection molding applications for HDPE drive overall demand. Demand in the United States and Western Europe is driven by blow molding applications, whereas Chinese demand is driven by film and sheet applications. Countries with large populations and growing economies, such as China, India, and Indonesia, have great growth potential.
Global trade in the next five years will be affected primarily by increased exports from North America and growing self-sufficiency in China. The Middle East will continue to export large volumes in the forecast years.
$49
Delivery time: Maximum 24 hours