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  • IHS CEH Report : Ethylene–Vinyl Acetate (EVA) (Chemical Economics Handbook 2019)

Download Report IHS CEH Report : Ethylene–Vinyl Acetate (EVA) (Chemical Economics Handbook 2019)

PDF by S&P Global Commodity Insights; IHS Markit
Information
Format: PDF Language: English Pages: 101 Publisher: S&P Global Commodity Insights; IHS Markit Publitshion date: 2019 ISBN: 969482
Description
World consumption of ethylene–vinyl acetate (EVA) copolymers is dominated by Northeast Asia, which accounted for nearly 53% of the total in 2018; by country, consumption was dominated by China, which topped the list at 42% of the global total. Demand is growing at an average annual rate of about 6% in China, much higher than in North America, Japan, and Western Europe, which are forecast to have modest average annual growth, indicative of mature economies with less consumption growth. Globally, consumption is forecast to grow at an average annual rate of about 4%. Major copolymer end uses include adhesives, blow molding, wire and cable manufacturing, film production, foam sheet, extrusion, coextrusion, lamination, coatings, hot-melts, and injection molding. EVAs are also used to modify polymers to improve their flexibility and toughness, and are added to fuel oils to improve cold flow characteristics. Film and sheet applications are the largest-volume markets for EVA, accounting for 55% of world consumption in 2018; they are the major growth markets in countries like China. The global polyethylene (PE) industry can be characterized mainly by a wave of capacity additions in North America, the Middle East, and China (mainly coal-based). The shift toward lighter and cost-advantaged feedstock in North America is reincentivizing production in the region. Competition in the international market has increased, adding pressure to high-cost producers, especially in Western Europe. Conventional LDPE accounts for about 84% of the world's high-pressure production; the remainder includes copolymers like ethylene–vinyl acetate (EVA) with a vinyl acetate content of up to 45% VA. Materials with higher VA content tend to be more expensive to produce than LDPE, but potentially can achieve a higher margin. Global EVA copolymer demand is forecast to be about 4.3 million metric tons in 2023, with an average annual global growth rate of 4% during 2018–23. Conventional low-density polyethylene (LDPE) is predicted to grow at a slower rate of 2.5% per year but account for 3.7 million metric tons of volume growth compared with 780,000 metric tons for EVA copolymers. ExxonMobil, Hanwha Total, and Formosa are the top three global producers, accounting for a collective share of about 24% of global capacity in 2018. Formosa is the largest producer, accounting for about 16% of Northeast Asia's EVA copolymer capacity. Ten out of the top 20 producers are in Northeast Asia. By 2023, China is expected to add about 1.0 million metric tons of EVA capacity, with an above-average annual capacity growth rate of 17.5% between 2018 and 2023. Yet again, China is expected to dominate this sector of the industry, predicted to consume 46% of the world's EVA copolymer by 2023. Over the next five years, many of the US PE capacity expansions, which were announced following the shale boom, will come to fruition. North America will surpass the Middle East and China as the largest LDPE producer, with 5.4 million metric tons of LDPE capacity. However, EVA copolymer capacity is expected to account for only 643,000 metric tons. Other regions, like the Middle East and the Indian Subcontinent, have made investments into EVA copolymer, but with a focus on the production of MEVA copolymer grades and trading with Northeast Asia, where solar panel manufacturing is growing. China will continue to lead world demand for polyethylene, and is expected to have a total demand of 9.0 million metric tons of LDPE resins by 2023, including 2 million metric tons of EVA copolymers. China's EVA copolymer consumption is predicted to grow at about 6.1% per year. It is short domestically, and the market for LDPE and EVA copolymer imports will continue to grow. In contrast, US consumption will grow at a modest average annual rate of 1.7% in 2018–23 and will reach over 407,000 metric tons by 2023. With further aggressive expansions, the United States will remain long, and LDPE and EVA copolymer exports are expected to grow rapidly over the next five years. In Western Europe, EVA copolymer demand will reach 299,000 metric tons; growth will also be modest at 1.4% in the next five years. Global trade in the next five years will be affected primarily by increased exports from North America and China's growing self-sufficiency. The Middle East and India will continue to export large volumes in the forecast years.
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